UPDATE 1:

All 174 Dáil Éireann seats have been determined in Ireland’s general election. Fianna Fáil won 48 seats. Fine Gael, another traditional center right party, won 38 seats, one fewer than the 39 secured by left-leaning Sinn Féin. Independent candidates claimed 23 seats. Labour and Social Democrats each won 11 seats. People Before Profit-Solidarity won three seats; Aontú secured two; and the Green Party retained only one of the 12 seats it held in the previous government.

Micheál Martin

Negotiations to secure a majority coalition of at least 88 members–and most leaders would want some padding, too–have begun in private meetings and in media reports. FF’s Micheál Martin, likely to emerge as the next taoiseach, has said Donald Trump’s return to the White House on Jan. 20 is “an effective deadline” for Ireland’s government formation, Politico.eu reports.

Wired notes that Ireland’s election result bucks the global trend this year of far-right and populist parties and leaders making significant gains in Europe and the US. The losers are claiming the election was rigged and spewing other conspiracy theories on social media.

ORIGINAL POST:

Voters in the Republic of Ireland have signaled a desire for stability instead of change. They have returned center-right Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael party candidates who will need a third partner–likely Labour or the Social Democrats–to complete the next coalition government majority. Ireland’s Green party, smallest partner in the 2020-through October 2024 FF-FG coalition, faded in the Nov. 29 polling.

Ballots are still being counted in the country’s proportional representation/single transferable vote system. Voters can choose as many, or as few, candidates as they like in order of preference within each multi-seat constituency. See a detailed explanation.

A total of 174 representatives are being chosen to Dáil Éireann, an increase of 14 seats from the previous parliament. The number of constituencies has grown from 39 to 43, with each constituency having from three to five members. The expansion is based on the Republic’s growing population, now over 5 million.

Some highlights:

• Fianna Fáil’s Micheál Martin; Fine Gale‘s Simon Harris, and Sinn Féin‘s Mary Lou McDonald have been re-elected to their seats in the Dáil. Martin seems best positioned to become the next taoiseach, or prime minister, with FF apparently heading toward the most seats.
• Sinn Féin likely will be among the top three finishers, a better outcome than expected after taking losses in local and European Union elections this summer, then being roughed up this fall by several internal scandals. But the left-leaning united Ireland party will not be in position to form a coalition.
• Gangland boss Gerry “The Monk” Hutch nearly secured the fourth and final seat in the Dublin Central constituency.
• Voters in Limerick noticed that Maurice Quinlivan of Sinn Féin and Dean Quinn of The Irish People party were listed ahead of Willie O’Dea of Fianna Fail and the Social Democrats’ Elisa O’Donovan on their ballots. The deviation from alphabetical order could result in challenges to the result.
• Two groups monitoring anti-social behavior and misinformation claim to have documented more than four dozen episodes of politically motivated violence, threats, or harassment against candidates or their canvassers in the weeks before the election.
• The national turnout was just shy of 60 percent.

mage from An Coimisiún Toghcháin, The Electoral Commission.