Tag Archives: Brexit

Support for united Ireland not boosted by Brexit

Just over half (52 percent) of Northern Ireland voters in a new opinion survey say they do not want a referendum on political reunification of the island.

The poll for BBC Northern Ireland’s “The View” comes just shy of three months since the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. In the referendum, 56 percent of the Northern Ireland electorate voted to remain in the E.U.

british-irish-flags-dublin-390x285.jpg (390×285)In the wake of the Brexit referendum result, Sinn Féin demanded that the secretary of state call a border poll, as provided by the Good Friday Agreement. The government can call a border poll if it “appears likely that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland.”

The BBC poll shows that if such a border poll were held now, 63 percent of northern residents would vote to stay in the U.K., while just 22 percent would support joining the Republic of Ireland.

Shortly after the 23 June Brexit vote, the Department of Foreign Affairs in Dublin reported a sharp rise in the number of people from the North applying for Irish passports. Some observers quickly interpreted this as indicating support for a united Ireland.

Guest post: questions about Brexit’s impact on Ireland

Less than two months ago, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union by a margin of 52 percent to 48 percent. Northern Ireland voters wanted to “Remain” in the EU by 56 percent to 44 percent. So far, most questions about the impact of the UK’s decision on the island of Ireland are unanswered.

“A Question Lingers on the Irish Border: What’s Next?,” The New York Times reported 6 August:

Four decades of European integration have helped Ireland not only escape the shadow of Britain, but also improve relations with London and work with the British for peace in Northern Ireland. Now the question is whether Britain’s departure from the bloc will drive a wedge between them.

The Washington Post headline two days later: “The Brexit Wildcard? Ireland.”

What will happen to the Irish isle, north and south, is one of the biggest wild cards of the Brexit vote. … What will happen to trade and travel is unknown — and there are even bigger questions being asked about unification of the island.

The Irish Times is devoting a special section to its ongoing Brexit coverage.

Timothy Plum has been traveling to both sides of the Irish border for more than 20 years on business, academic and personal reasons. Listen to him talk about “Conflict identity and school achievement in secondary education in Northern Ireland” in this 6 June podcast with Drive 105 radio host Eileen Walsh in Derry. Tim just returned to Washington, D.C. after spending a month in Belfast. He filed the guest post below the map. MH

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By TIM PLUM

Britain’s decision to leave the European Union was announced in the airplane cabin as my wife and I landed in Dublin in June. I was beginning a month of graduate work at Queens University, Belfast.

My first thought: How can this happen? My next thought: We’re on the ground in Ireland at a very historic moment for the island.

Reactions to the referendum ranged from outrage and quiet reservation to acceptance and joy. Perhaps nothing should surprise us in a year that has seen Donald Trump win the U.S. Republican Party nomination.

But the people we met were genuinely stunned by the Brexit vote. They soon grew more bewildered as PM David Cameron resigned and left the mess for someone else to clean up.

The outrage was most pronounced among the students, professors and staff at QUB. They could not believe the “stupidity” (their word, not mine) of the conservatives in London who managed to scare people into voting “Leave,” then quickly exited the political stage themselves. Boris Johnson and Neil Farage were among those who abandoned the ship when the country needed their help.

We also heard quiet reservation from wait staff, hotel workers and bar patrons. Some of the later group insisted to my wife that Brexit might work, and that we should support Trump.

I personally know two people in Derry who voted “Leave” and supported the outcome. Their reasoning was simple: economics in the EU are a mess and perhaps standing alone will bring more prosperity.

I raised the possibility of renewed border controls and stiff tariffs that EU nations promise to put on UK goods. But I could not persuade them to change their views, even as Theresa May became PM and appointed Johnson as Foreign Secretary.

So I guess we will have to see what happens once May files the Article 50 to begin the process of untangling the relationship between the UK and the EU.

As they wait for those details to emerge, Queens students are worried about scholarship funding, and people all over Northern Ireland are concerned about the end of EU support that has helped the peace process.

It seems most people on the island, especially in the Republic, do not want Brexit to result in a united Ireland, even as many people in the north begin filing for Irish passports.

Reunited Ireland …

DUBLIN~…or just Brits out of Ireland? The graffiti below was marked on the plywood barrier of a city center Dublin construction site on 19 July 2016. As the 1916 Easter Rising remembrance winds down, and Brexit plays out, talk of reuniting the island of Ireland is a topic of growing debate, and will continue to be so as the centennial of partition quickly approaches.

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Post-Brexit United Ireland? A Q & A primer

Great Britain’s decision to leave the European Union has stirred talk of reuniting the island of Ireland as one political as well as geographic entity. It’s not going to happen soon (this year, next year…), but Brexit makes it more likely such an effort will be tried, whether successful or not, before the centennial of Irish partition in 2021. Here’s more background:

Why did Ireland split up, anyway?

How much time have you got? In the World War I era, Irish nationalists were close to obtaining limited domestic autonomy, called home rule, while remaining within the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland, which was created in 1800. The effort split internally as more militant nationalists, or republicans, demanded full independence from Britain. The Protestant majority in the northeast province of Ireland, called Ulster, wanted to keep the status quo, hence the term unionists. The May 1921 partition of Ireland was an attempt to keep both sides happy. Six counties in the northeast were renamed Northern Ireland and remained part of Britain. The other 26 counties of the island, predominantly Catholic, were at first called the Irish Free State, then later became the fully independent Republic of Ireland. Read a more detailed history on “The Emergence of the Two Irelands.”

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A 1937 map shows Irish Free State (south) and Northern Ireland.

What impact does Brexit have on this arrangement?

Voters in Northern Ireland voted by 56 percent to 44 percent to remain in the European Union (joining Scotland and the city of London in opposition to Brexit), but the overall referendum passed by 52 percent to 48 percent. Though leaving the E.U., Northern Ireland remains part of the U.K. Got that? Now, instead of a soft border between two E.U. countries (Ireland and U.K.), a hard divide will be created between E.U. and non-E.U. nations. It will be more difficult for people and goods to cross the border.

What about reuniting the ‘two Irelands’ so both are in the E.U.?

The 1998 Good Friday Agreement that created a power-sharing (home rule) government in Northern Ireland contains a provision for a “border poll” on becoming part of a united Ireland. The Irish nationalist Sinn Féin party immediately called for such a referendum after the Brexit results were announced. “Not so fast,” responded British Northern Ireland Secretary Theresa Villiers and unionist politicians. As The Guardian reports, “there cannot be a poll on Irish unity or remaining within the U.K. unless the majority of political representatives of both communities in Northern Ireland demand it.”

What does the polling say?

Last fall, an RTÉ/BBC cross border poll showed that just under one third of those surveyed in Northern Ireland favored political reunification of the island within their lifetime, compared to two thirds of respondents living in the Republic of Ireland. It’s important to remember that the poll was taken months before the Brexit vote. A sustained economic downturn resulting from Brexit may prompt Northern Ireland to embrace the Republic. Historical note: A 1973 referendum in Northern Ireland asked whether people wanted to remain in the U.K. or rejoin Ireland. The remain vote won by a landslide 98 percent, but Catholic nationalists boycotted the election for a variety of reasons. Of course, 1973 was just beginning of The Troubles, and long before economic globalization.

What else could happen in Northern Ireland?

There are already suggestions that Northern Ireland might join Scotland, if and when it splits from Great Britain as the result of Brexit. Northern Ireland and Scotland have shared historic and cultural ties. It’s also possible that a few of the six counties in Northern Ireland could rejoin Ireland, especially those on the border, while the others remain linked to Britain. Or Northern Ireland could opt for its own independence.

As Brits split, Ireland’s fate awaits

Britain’s decision to leave the European Union, by a referendum margin of 52 percent to 48 percent, will have enormous consequences for Ireland and Northern Ireland, including the possibility of driving a potential reunification of the island. This analysis by The Irish Times Deputy Political Editor Pat Leahy is a good first read:

What does ‘Brexit nightmare’ mean for Ireland?

More to come…MH

Ireland, Northern Ireland brace for possible Brexit

British voters will decide 23 June whether to remain in the European Union. If they opt for the so-called “Brexit,” the decision is likely to have significant impacts on Ireland and Northern Ireland, including the peace process, trade and other cross-border activity.

Here’s a sample of reporting in advance of the referendum. I’ll probably add a few more links before the vote, so email subscribers should check back for updates. Referendum results will be covered in a separate post.

Read fact-check reporting on Ireland-Northern Ireland border issues from FactCheckNI, The Journal.ie and FullFact.org.

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How Brexit could lead to a united Ireland – and wage cuts for thousands
From RT

Sinn Féin leaders have already signaled that if Northern Ireland is no longer part of the EU, the party will call for a vote on reunification with the 26 counties, as is their right under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement.

Brexit could unravel Northern Ireland peace process
From Deutsche Welle (Germany)

[F]ears of border chaos may not be as far-fetched as they first appear. Even during the Troubles, people could move with relative ease between both jurisdictions due to an informal arrangement known as the Common Travel Area (CTA). But a recent report by MPs on the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee said that in the event of Brexit, the future of the CTA “would be put into question.” Irish Premier Enda Kenny recently raised the prospect of border controls being reimposed if Britain left the EU. Former UK prime ministers John Major and Tony Blair recently warned that Brexit could undermine the Northern Irish peace process and reopen the question of a united Ireland.

Brexit to prompt major cut in Irish growth forecasts, warns ESRI
From The Irish Times

The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) has warned that its growth forecasts for the Irish economy will be downgraded significantly if the UK votes to leave the EU. The institute said uncertainty ahead of … [the] vote had already damaged Ireland’s trade position with several headline indicators pointing to a slide in export-related activity.

Central plank of Irish foreign policy imperilled by EU plebiscite
NewsLetter (Northern Ireland)

Although a Brexit would raise questions about the future of the UK … the most dramatic immediate political tremor will be felt in Dublin. A British exit from the EU would demolish a central plank of the Republic’s foreign policy towards Northern Ireland and would also push northern nationalism towards a strategic rethink. … [A] UK exit from the EU would push Dublin towards also leaving the EU within a relatively short timeframe.

Brexit and Rising could impact Northern Ireland

A referendum on whether the United Kingdom should exit the European Union could have a big impact in Northern Ireland. The so-called Brexit vote could come as early as this summer or get pushed deep into 2017. The International Business Times writes:

Economists and politicians opposed to leaving the European Union warn that a Brexit would fracture Northern Irish peace by further isolating it from the Republic of Ireland and cutting off local communities from international funding, sending ripple effects throughout the U.K. Supporters of a Brexit, however, said Northern Ireland already has systems in place to continue political and economic relationships with Ireland, facilitating an easy transition out of the EU.

The Irish Times adds that the Republic also has a great deal riding on the Brexit result. The concerns stem primarily from the close economic ties between the two states, particularly in two areas.

First, the UK is by some distance the Republic’s largest trading partner, accounting for 43 per cent of exports by Southern firms in 2012. Second, the two countries’ energy markets are deeply entwined: Ireland imports 89 per cent of its oil products and 93 per cent of its gas from its nearest neighbor.

Meanwhile, this year’s 100th anniversary of the Easter Rising in the Republic is also causing concerns about the North. The Guardian reports:

“…the centenary of the rebellion in Dublin has raised fears that celebrating the exploits of the lightly armed rebels who took on the British army could destabilize the still fragile peaceful political settlement in Northern Ireland, with dissident republicans claiming they are the true inheritors of Easter Week 1916. … Unionists and some historians have expressed concern that the centenary may be used by anti-peace process republicans to claim the 1916 rebellion is “unfinished business.”